The Rams' points of margin with Davante Adams and since Davante Adams’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Rams were 1.3 points under with Davante Adams and 13.3 points over since Davante Adams’ last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are -0.5 and 14.5, a difference of 15.0. Both division games were with Davante Adams. All 4 first-half games were with Davante Adams.
Davante Adams, receiver: 480 receiving yards, 30 receptions and 49 targets in 6 games this season.
2 games since Davante Adams’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −14.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Davante Adams vs since Davante Adams’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A −15.0 difference in points of margin with Davante Adams vs since Davante Adams’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs SF (neutral) | L | -20 | -0.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | vs NYG | W | 22 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DEN | L | -4 | -0.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 4 | 3.3 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs BUF | L | -3 | -1.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs ARI | L | -2 | 3.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ LV | W | 14 | -0.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 15 | 2.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.