The Rams' points allowed with Aaron Donald and without Aaron Donald
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Rams were 2.6 points under with Aaron Donald and 1.5 points over without Aaron Donald over their last 35 games, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 20.2 and 23.5, a difference of 3.3. All 4 home games were with Aaron Donald.
Aaron Donald, defensive lineman: 6 of those 35 games.
2 games without Aaron Donald is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Aaron Donald
−2.6
without Aaron Donald
+1.5
-10010
A −4.1 difference in points allowed over expected with Aaron Donald vs without Aaron Donald is about what you’d expect.
plain
20.2
23.5
102030
A −3.3 difference in points allowed with Aaron Donald vs without Aaron Donald is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Aaron Donaldwithout Aaron Donald
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs BUF | W | 42 | 25.6 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | @ SF | W | 6 | 24.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ NYJ | W | 9 | 21.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 9 | 22.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 30 | 20.4 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs MIN (neutral) | W | 9 | 24.4 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ PHI | L | 28 | 26.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs HOU | W | 9 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 19 | 18.6 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @PHI | L | 33 | 19.0 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs IND | W | 20 | 24.5 | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | vsSF | L | 26 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ BAL | W | 3 | 24.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs JAX (neutral) | W | 7 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs NO | W | 10 | 16.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @SF | W | 26 | 23.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsSEA | W | 19 | 25.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs TB | W | 7 | 21.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ CAR | L | 31 | 17.7 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ARI | W | 17 | 21.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs DET | W | 34 | 22.6 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @SEA | L | 38 | 25.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @ ATL | L | 27 | 19.5 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsARI | W | 20 | 19.0 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @CAR | W | 31 | 17.7 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 17 | 23.7 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @SEA | L | 31 | 26.2 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vsSF (neutral) | L | 27 | 23.6 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | vs NYG | W | 6 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 30 | 22.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @PHI | W | 20 | 20.5 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vsBUF | L | 37 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsARI | L | 18 | 22.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ LV | W | 21 | 24.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 9 | 20.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Aaron Donald nor without Aaron Donald: Aaron Donald had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.