The Rams' carries with Davante Adams and since Davante Adams’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Rams were 2.2 carries under with Davante Adams and 5.9 carries over since Davante Adams’ last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 24.7 and 32.5, a difference of 7.8. Both division games were with Davante Adams. All 4 first-half games were with Davante Adams.
Davante Adams, receiver: 480 receiving yards, 30 receptions and 49 targets in 6 games this season.
2 games since Davante Adams’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −8.0 difference in carries over expected with Davante Adams vs since Davante Adams’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Davante Adams and it comes up 11 times in 100.
A −7.8 difference in carries with Davante Adams vs since Davante Adams’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Davante Adams and it comes up 11 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs SF (neutral) | L | 29 | 25.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | vs NYG | W | 28 | 26.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 23 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 25 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 23 | 26.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 20 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ LV | W | 38 | 25.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 27 | 27.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.