The Raiders' points with Brock Bowers and without Brock Bowers
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Raiders were 0.2 points over with Brock Bowers and 5.3 points under without Brock Bowers over their last 35 games, 28 games against 7. The plain averages are 19.4 and 14.7, a difference of 4.7. Both games after a bye were with Brock Bowers.
Brock Bowers, tight end: 1,944 receiving yards, 170 receptions and 240 targets in 28 of those 35 games.
points a game over expected
with Brock Bowers
+0.2
without Brock Bowers
−5.3
-10010
A +5.6 difference in points over expected with Brock Bowers vs without Brock Bowers is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Brock Bowers and it comes up 7 times in 100.
plain
19.4
14.7
0102030
A +4.7 difference in points with Brock Bowers vs without Brock Bowers is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Brock Bowers and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
with Brock Bowerswithout Brock Bowers
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | vs KC | L | 20 | 18.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ CIN | L | 24 | 21.7 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ MIA | L | 19 | 19.1 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs DEN | L | 19 | 17.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @KC | L | 17 | 17.1 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ TB | L | 13 | 19.4 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | vs ATL | L | 9 | 23.5 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs JAX | W | 19 | 23.4 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ NO | W | 25 | 19.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs LAC | L | 20 | 17.9 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ NE | W | 20 | 13.3 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | vsLAC | L | 9 | 17.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ WAS | L | 24 | 18.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs CHI | L | 24 | 18.9 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ IND | L | 6 | 18.2 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs TEN | W | 20 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @KC | L | 0 | 15.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vsJAX | L | 29 | 14.5 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @DEN | L | 7 | 14.5 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vs DAL | L | 16 | 25.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs CLE | L | 10 | 18.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @LAC | L | 14 | 14.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsDEN | L | 17 | 15.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ PHI | L | 0 | 14.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ HOU | L | 21 | 10.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs NYG | L | 10 | 21.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsKC | W | 14 | 15.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 27 | 24.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @LAC | W | 26 | 24.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @NO | W | 35 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsKC | L | 27 | 23.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @NE | L | 17 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 30 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs LA | L | 21 | 24.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ NYJ | W | 38 | 23.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.9 in 2024, plus 1.1 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.