The Raiders' points of margin with Brock Bowers and without Brock Bowers
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Raiders were 5.1 points under with Brock Bowers and 12.0 points over without Brock Bowers in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are -5.8 and 13.0, a difference of 18.8. All 4 second-half games were with Brock Bowers.
Brock Bowers, tight end: 547 receiving yards, 41 receptions and 61 targets in 6 games this season.
2 games without Brock Bowers is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −17.1 difference in points of margin over expected with Brock Bowers vs without Brock Bowers is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Brock Bowers and it comes up 15 times in 100.
A −18.8 difference in points of margin with Brock Bowers vs without Brock Bowers is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Brock Bowers and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 14 | 0.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 12 | 1.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ NO | W | 8 | -0.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs KC | L | -3 | -1.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NE | L | -28 | -0.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs BUF | L | -3 | -2.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs LA | L | -14 | 0.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ NYJ | W | 5 | -0.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.