The Patriots' points of margin with A.J. Brown and without A.J. Brown
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Patriots were 1.8 points under with A.J. Brown and 4.2 points over without A.J. Brown over their last 35 games, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are -0.7 and 4.8, a difference of 5.5.
A.J. Brown, receiver: 101 receiving yards, 9 receptions and 20 targets in 3 of those 35 games.
3 games with A.J. Brown is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with A.J. Brown
−1.8
without A.J. Brown
+4.2
-20020
A −6.0 difference in points of margin over expected with A.J. Brown vs without A.J. Brown is about what you’d expect.
plain
-0.7
4.8
-20020
A −5.5 difference in points of margin with A.J. Brown vs without A.J. Brown is about what you’d expect.
The games
with A.J. Brownwithout A.J. Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ MIA | L | -19 | -4.4 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs IND | L | -1 | -2.1 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ ARI | L | -13 | -9.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ BUF | L | -3 | -16.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs LAC | L | -33 | -5.2 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vsBUF | W | 7 | -13.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs LV | L | -7 | 17.4 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @MIA | W | 6 | 8.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs PIT | L | -7 | 8.6 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs CAR | W | 29 | 7.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @BUF | W | 3 | -1.1 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ NO | W | 6 | 6.9 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 18 | 8.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs CLE | W | 19 | 12.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs ATL | W | 1 | 9.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ TB | W | 5 | 3.7 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 13 | 16.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ CIN | W | 6 | 7.4 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 18 | 9.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsBUF | L | -4 | 3.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ BAL | W | 4 | 2.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @NYJ | W | 32 | 11.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 28 | 10.1 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsLAC | W | 13 | 5.8 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs HOU | W | 12 | -1.2 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @ DEN | W | 3 | 0.4 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vs SEA (neutral) | L | -16 | -5.6 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | @SEA | L | -3 | 1.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsPIT | W | 17 | -1.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ JAX | L | -29 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @BUF | W | 3 | -0.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsLV | W | 28 | 0.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsNYJ | W | 7 | 2.6 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ CHI | L | -6 | -0.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @MIA | W | 5 | 3.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with A.J. Brown nor without A.J. Brown: A.J. Brown had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.