The Patriots' carries with A.J. Brown and without A.J. Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Patriots were 0.4 carries over with A.J. Brown and 3.7 carries over without A.J. Brown in 2026, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 28.0 and 31.2, a difference of 3.2.
A.J. Brown, receiver: 101 receiving yards, 9 receptions and 20 targets in 3 games this season.
3 games with A.J. Brown is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with A.J. Brown
+0.4
without A.J. Brown
+3.7
-505
A −3.3 difference in carries over expected with A.J. Brown vs without A.J. Brown is about what you’d expect.
plain
28.0
31.2
20253035
A −3.2 difference in carries with A.J. Brown vs without A.J. Brown is about what you’d expect.
The games
with A.J. Brownwithout A.J. Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 31 | 27.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 28 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ JAX | L | 26 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ BUF | W | 35 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs LV | W | 31 | 28.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 36 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 17 | 26.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 36 | 28.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.