The Panthers’ rushing yards with Xavier Legette and without Xavier Legette
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Panthers were 5.5 yards under with Xavier Legette and 14.9 yards over without Xavier Legette over their last 35 games, 27 games against 8. The plain averages are 106.9 and 125.4, a difference of 18.5.
Xavier Legette, receiver: 755 receiving yards, 69 receptions and 130 targets in 27 of those 35 games, 0% of CAR’s rushing yards in those games.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −20.4 difference in rushing yards over expected with Xavier Legette vs without Xavier Legette is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Xavier Legette and it comes up 17 times in 100.
A −18.5 difference in rushing yards with Xavier Legette vs without Xavier Legette is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Xavier Legette and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ DEN | L | 69 | 107.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs NO | W | 80 | 133.5 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs NYG (neutral) | W | 188 | 110.2 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs KC | L | 85 | 103.7 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs TB | L | 78 | 90.4 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ PHI | L | 118 | 94.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs DAL | L | 60 | 120.4 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 243 | 107.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @TB | L | 39 | 94.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 155 | 112.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ JAX | L | 113 | 99.2 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ARI | L | 49 | 126.0 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsATL | W | 110 | 123.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ NE | L | 129 | 105.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs MIA | W | 239 | 115.5 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 216 | 116.0 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ NYJ | W | 125 | 126.2 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs BUF | L | 114 | 128.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ GB | W | 163 | 112.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsNO | L | 73 | 119.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ATL | W | 67 | 123.7 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ SF | L | 69 | 116.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs LA | W | 164 | 110.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @NO | L | 127 | 114.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsTB | W | 101 | 109.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 99 | 107.2 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @TB | L | 19 | 112.3 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsLA | L | 83 | 115.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 125 | 99.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ATL | W | 68 | 116.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 98 | 116.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DET | W | 127 | 105.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @PHI | W | 126 | 116.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsTB | L | 88 | 103.0 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @GB | L | 82 | 106.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.5 in 2024, plus 1.9 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2024, 49% in 2025, 32% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.