The Panthers' points allowed with Xavier Legette and without Xavier Legette
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Panthers were 0.6 points over with Xavier Legette and 1.2 points over without Xavier Legette over their last 35 games, 27 games against 8. The plain averages are 25.7 and 25.4, a difference of 0.4. Expected was 1.0 points higher with Xavier Legette than without Xavier Legette.
Xavier Legette, receiver: 755 receiving yards, 69 receptions and 130 targets in 27 of those 35 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Xavier Legette
+0.6
without Xavier Legette
+1.2
-20020
A −0.7 difference in points allowed over expected with Xavier Legette vs without Xavier Legette is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.7
25.4
02040
A +0.4 difference in points allowed with Xavier Legette vs without Xavier Legette is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Xavier Legettewithout Xavier Legette
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ DEN | L | 28 | 30.4 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs NO | W | 22 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs NYG (neutral) | W | 17 | 24.1 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs KC | L | 30 | 28.4 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs TB | L | 26 | 32.4 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ PHI | L | 22 | 34.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs DAL | L | 30 | 26.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 30 | 28.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @TB | L | 48 | 32.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 38 | 28.6 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ JAX | L | 26 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ARI | L | 27 | 21.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsATL | W | 0 | 21.6 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ NE | L | 42 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs MIA | W | 24 | 18.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 27 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ NYJ | W | 6 | 20.1 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs BUF | L | 40 | 24.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ GB | W | 13 | 23.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsNO | L | 17 | 17.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ATL | W | 27 | 21.1 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ SF | L | 20 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs LA | W | 28 | 27.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @NO | L | 20 | 19.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsTB | W | 20 | 21.8 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 27 | 26.4 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @TB | L | 16 | 23.9 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsLA | L | 34 | 26.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 59 | 23.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ATL | W | 3 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 21 | 23.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DET | W | 26 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @PHI | W | 14 | 23.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsTB | L | 43 | 22.9 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @GB | L | 27 | 24.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.