The Panthers' carries with Jalen Coker and without Jalen Coker
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Panthers were 1.5 carries under with Jalen Coker and 2.3 carries over without Jalen Coker over their last 35 games, 25 games against 10. The plain averages are 24.9 and 27.6, a difference of 2.7.
Jalen Coker, receiver: 1,262 receiving yards, 93 receptions and 136 targets in 25 of those 35 games.
carries a game over expected
with Jalen Coker
−1.5
without Jalen Coker
+2.3
-10010
A −3.8 difference in carries over expected with Jalen Coker vs without Jalen Coker is about what you’d expect.
plain
24.9
27.6
203040
A −2.7 difference in carries with Jalen Coker vs without Jalen Coker is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jalen Cokerwithout Jalen Coker
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ DEN | L | 20 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs NO | W | 23 | 26.5 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs NYG (neutral) | W | 32 | 25.5 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs KC | L | 21 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs TB | L | 21 | 21.9 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ PHI | L | 34 | 21.3 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs DAL | L | 16 | 25.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 36 | 24.9 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @TB | L | 13 | 22.7 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 30 | 24.9 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ JAX | L | 25 | 24.5 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ARI | L | 19 | 28.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsATL | W | 30 | 27.3 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ NE | L | 28 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs MIA | W | 32 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 38 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ NYJ | W | 36 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs BUF | L | 28 | 27.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ GB | W | 33 | 27.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsNO | L | 23 | 29.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ATL | W | 25 | 27.1 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ SF | L | 13 | 26.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs LA | W | 40 | 25.9 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @NO | L | 31 | 28.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsTB | W | 20 | 25.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 26 | 26.0 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @TB | L | 14 | 25.3 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsLA | L | 22 | 26.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 22 | 24.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ATL | W | 22 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 23 | 26.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DET | W | 28 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @PHI | W | 33 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsTB | L | 18 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @GB | L | 23 | 26.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.4 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 48% in 2025, 21% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.