The Jets' turnovers with Adonai Mitchell and without Adonai Mitchell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Jets were 0.1 turnovers under with Adonai Mitchell and 0.1 turnovers under without Adonai Mitchell over their last 35 games, 12 games against 13. The plain averages are 1.2 and 1.2, a difference of 0.0.
Adonai Mitchell, receiver: 566 receiving yards, 40 receptions and 85 targets in 12 of those 35 games.
turnovers a game over expected
with Adonai Mitchell
−0.1
without Adonai Mitchell
−0.1
-101
A −0.0 difference in turnovers over expected with Adonai Mitchell vs without Adonai Mitchell is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.2
1.2
0123
A +0.0 difference in turnovers with Adonai Mitchell vs without Adonai Mitchell is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Adonai Mitchellwithout Adonai Mitchell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ NE | L | 0 | 1.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2024 | vs HOU | W | 1 | 1.4 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ ARI | L | 1 | 1.1 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs IND | L | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs SEA | L | 2 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ MIA | L | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ JAX | W | 0 | 0.8 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs LA | L | 2 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ BUF | L | 3 | 1.4 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vsMIA | W | 1 | 1.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs PIT | L | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsBUF | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ TB | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | @MIA | L | 3 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs DAL | L | 1 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs DEN (neutral) | L | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs CAR | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ CIN | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs CLE | W | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @NE | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ BAL | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs ATL | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsMIA | L | 3 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @JAX | L | 3 | 1.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ NO | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsNE | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @BUF | L | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs GB | L | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DET | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @NE | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsMIA | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LV | L | 1 | 1.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.0 in 2025, plus 0.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 15% in 2025, 2% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 10 games in 2024 are neither with Adonai Mitchell nor without Adonai Mitchell: Adonai Mitchell had no game for the team that season, and sit out.