The Jets' points allowed with Mason Taylor and without Mason Taylor
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Jets were 0.3 points under with Mason Taylor and 7.3 points over without Mason Taylor over their last 35 games, 19 games against 6. The plain averages are 25.4 and 34.7, a difference of 9.2.
Mason Taylor, tight end: 505 receiving yards, 61 receptions and 88 targets in 18 of those 35 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Mason Taylor
−0.3
without Mason Taylor
+7.3
-10010
A −7.7 difference in points allowed over expected with Mason Taylor vs without Mason Taylor is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.4
34.7
10203040
A −9.2 difference in points allowed with Mason Taylor vs without Mason Taylor is unusual: shuffle which games were with Mason Taylor and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
with Mason Taylorwithout Mason Taylor
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ NE | L | 25 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2024 | vs HOU | W | 13 | 23.4 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ ARI | L | 31 | 24.7 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs IND | L | 28 | 22.5 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs SEA | L | 26 | 22.9 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ MIA | L | 32 | 21.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ JAX | W | 25 | 21.4 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs LA | L | 19 | 23.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ BUF | L | 40 | 29.4 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vsMIA | W | 20 | 21.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs PIT | L | 34 | 25.6 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsBUF | L | 30 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ TB | L | 29 | 28.7 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | @MIA | L | 27 | 25.8 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs DAL | L | 37 | 29.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs DEN (neutral) | L | 13 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs CAR | L | 13 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ CIN | W | 38 | 28.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs CLE | W | 20 | 21.2 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @NE | L | 27 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ BAL | L | 23 | 30.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs ATL | W | 24 | 25.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsMIA | L | 34 | 23.5 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @JAX | L | 48 | 30.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ NO | L | 29 | 24.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsNE | L | 42 | 27.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @BUF | L | 35 | 32.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 10 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs GB | L | 20 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DET | L | 31 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 23 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 12 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @NE | L | 26 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsMIA | L | 28 | 21.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LV | L | 38 | 23.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 10 games in 2024 are neither with Mason Taylor nor without Mason Taylor: Mason Taylor had no game for the team that season, and sit out.