The Jets' points allowed with Breece Hall and without Breece Hall
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Jets were 1.5 points over with Breece Hall and 3.5 points over without Breece Hall over their last 35 games, 28 games against 7. The plain averages are 27.0 and 27.7, a difference of 0.7. Expected was 1.3 points higher with Breece Hall than without Breece Hall. Both games after a bye were with Breece Hall. Both games on a short week were with Breece Hall.
Breece Hall, running back: 1,756 rushing yards, 408 carries and 71 receptions in 28 of those 35 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Breece Hall
+1.5
without Breece Hall
+3.5
-10010
A −2.1 difference in points allowed over expected with Breece Hall vs without Breece Hall is about what you’d expect.
plain
27.0
27.7
10203040
A −0.7 difference in points allowed with Breece Hall vs without Breece Hall is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Breece Hallwithout Breece Hall
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ NE | L | 25 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2024 | vs HOU | W | 13 | 23.4 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ ARI | L | 31 | 24.7 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs IND | L | 28 | 22.5 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs SEA | L | 26 | 22.9 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ MIA | L | 32 | 21.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ JAX | W | 25 | 21.4 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs LA | L | 19 | 23.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ BUF | L | 40 | 29.4 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vsMIA | W | 20 | 21.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs PIT | L | 34 | 25.6 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsBUF | L | 30 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ TB | L | 29 | 28.7 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | @MIA | L | 27 | 25.8 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs DAL | L | 37 | 29.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs DEN (neutral) | L | 13 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs CAR | L | 13 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ CIN | W | 38 | 28.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs CLE | W | 20 | 21.2 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @NE | L | 27 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ BAL | L | 23 | 30.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs ATL | W | 24 | 25.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsMIA | L | 34 | 23.5 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @JAX | L | 48 | 30.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ NO | L | 29 | 24.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsNE | L | 42 | 27.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @BUF | L | 35 | 32.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 10 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs GB | L | 20 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DET | L | 31 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 23 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 12 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @NE | L | 26 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsMIA | L | 28 | 21.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LV | L | 38 | 23.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.