The Jets' passing yards with Adonai Mitchell and without Adonai Mitchell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Jets were 27.8 yards over with Adonai Mitchell and 21.1 yards under without Adonai Mitchell in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 259.8 and 218.5, a difference of 41.3.
Adonai Mitchell, receiver: 265 receiving yards, 16 receptions and 27 targets in 4 games this season.
passing yards a game over expected
with Adonai Mitchell
+27.8
without Adonai Mitchell
−21.1
-1000
A +48.9 difference in passing yards over expected with Adonai Mitchell vs without Adonai Mitchell is about what you’d expect.
plain
259.8
218.5
200300
A +41.3 difference in passing yards with Adonai Mitchell vs without Adonai Mitchell is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Adonai Mitchellwithout Adonai Mitchell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 215 | 262.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs GB | L | 247 | 224.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DET | L | 321 | 246.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 119 | 247.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs CLE | W | 182 | 239.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ NE | L | 252 | 225.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs MIA | L | 287 | 211.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LV | L | 290 | 228.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.