The Jets' carries with Mason Taylor and without Mason Taylor
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Jets were 2.0 carries over with Mason Taylor and 9.5 carries under without Mason Taylor in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 28.8 and 16.5, a difference of 12.3. All 4 home games were with Mason Taylor. Both division games were with Mason Taylor. All 4 second-half games were with Mason Taylor.
Mason Taylor, tight end: 136 receiving yards, 17 receptions and 23 targets in 5 games this season.
2 games without Mason Taylor is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +11.4 difference in carries over expected with Mason Taylor vs without Mason Taylor is about what you’d expect.
A +12.3 difference in carries with Mason Taylor vs without Mason Taylor is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 39 | 27.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs GB | L | 27 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DET | L | 19 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 14 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs CLE | W | 32 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ NE | L | 27 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs MIA | L | 21 | 28.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LV | L | 27 | 27.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.