The Jets' carries with Adonai Mitchell and without Adonai Mitchell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Jets were 1.2 carries over with Adonai Mitchell and 3.0 carries under without Adonai Mitchell in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 28.5 and 23.0, a difference of 5.5.
Adonai Mitchell, receiver: 265 receiving yards, 16 receptions and 27 targets in 4 games this season.
carries a game over expected
with Adonai Mitchell
+1.2
without Adonai Mitchell
−3.0
-10010
A +4.2 difference in carries over expected with Adonai Mitchell vs without Adonai Mitchell is about what you’d expect.
plain
28.5
23.0
2030
A +5.5 difference in carries with Adonai Mitchell vs without Adonai Mitchell is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Adonai Mitchellwithout Adonai Mitchell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 39 | 27.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs GB | L | 27 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DET | L | 19 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 14 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs CLE | W | 32 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ NE | L | 27 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs MIA | L | 21 | 28.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LV | L | 27 | 27.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.