The Giants' rushing yards with Jaxson Dart and without Jaxson Dart
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Giants were 17.5 yards over with Jaxson Dart and 8.5 yards under without Jaxson Dart over their last 35 games, 13 games against 11. The plain averages are 140.1 and 109.5, a difference of 30.6.
Jaxson Dart, quarterback: 2,522 passing yards, 373 pass attempts and 242 completions in 16 of those 35 games, 26% of NYG’s rushing yards in those games.
rushing yards a game over expected
with Jaxson Dart
+17.5
without Jaxson Dart
−8.5
-50050
A +26.0 difference in rushing yards over expected with Jaxson Dart vs without Jaxson Dart is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jaxson Dart and it comes up 17 times in 100.
plain
140.1
109.5
100150
A +30.6 difference in rushing yards with Jaxson Dart vs without Jaxson Dart is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jaxson Dart and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
with Jaxson Dartwithout Jaxson Dart
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | vs PHI | L | 76 | 92.7 | |
| Oct 28, 2024 | @ PIT | L | 157 | 89.5 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs WAS | L | 164 | 114.8 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs CAR (neutral) | L | 167 | 154.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs TB | L | 76 | 86.2 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | @ DAL | L | 116 | 110.9 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs NO | L | 112 | 126.1 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs BAL | L | 55 | 81.4 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ ATL | L | 45 | 118.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs IND | W | 80 | 127.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @PHI | L | 100 | 91.7 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @WAS | L | 74 | 138.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @DAL | L | 84 | 128.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs KC | L | 130 | 115.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs LAC | W | 161 | 118.9 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @NO | L | 136 | 119.6 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsPHI | W | 172 | 121.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ DEN | L | 119 | 112.5 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @PHI | L | 68 | 125.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs SF | L | 117 | 121.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 169 | 130.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs GB | L | 142 | 121.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ DET | L | 122 | 120.3 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | @ NE | L | 124 | 111.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsWAS | L | 146 | 136.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs MIN | L | 128 | 125.8 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ LV | W | 155 | 118.9 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 161 | 126.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 165 | 125.6 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | @ LA | L | 52 | 116.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 138 | 116.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 87 | 115.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @WAS | T | 103 | 106.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsNO | L | 84 | 124.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 188 | 93.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 49% in 2025, 32% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 11 games in 2024 are neither with Jaxson Dart nor without Jaxson Dart: Jaxson Dart had no game for the team that season, and sit out.