The Giants' points with Theo Johnson and since Theo Johnson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Giants were 1.6 points under with Theo Johnson and 4.7 points over since Theo Johnson’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 21.8 and 27.0, a difference of 5.2. Both division games were with Theo Johnson. All 3 first-half games were with Theo Johnson.
Theo Johnson, tight end: 55 receiving yards, 4 receptions and 9 targets in 4 games this season.
2 games since Theo Johnson’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −6.3 difference in points over expected with Theo Johnson vs since Theo Johnson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −5.2 difference in points with Theo Johnson vs since Theo Johnson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 28 | 23.7 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | @ LA | L | 6 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 12 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 36 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ WAS | T | 27 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs NO | L | 27 | 23.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 27 | 21.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.