The Giants' points allowed with Najee Harris and without Najee Harris
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Giants were 1.3 points over with Najee Harris and 3.4 points under without Najee Harris in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 24.0 and 20.5, a difference of 3.5.
Najee Harris, running back: 99 rushing yards, 31 carries and 1 reception in 5 games this season.
2 games without Najee Harris is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Najee Harris
+1.3
without Najee Harris
−3.4
-10010
A +4.7 difference in points allowed over expected with Najee Harris vs without Najee Harris is about what you’d expect.
plain
24.0
20.5
102030
A +3.5 difference in points allowed with Najee Harris vs without Najee Harris is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Najee Harriswithout Najee Harris
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 20 | 24.7 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | @ LA | L | 28 | 22.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 7 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 24 | 22.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ WAS | T | 27 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs NO | L | 34 | 22.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 21 | 23.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.