The Giants' passing yards with Theo Johnson and without Theo Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Giants were 15.4 yards under with Theo Johnson and 11.4 yards over without Theo Johnson over their last 35 games, 26 games against 9. The plain averages are 208.6 and 239.9, a difference of 31.3. Both games after a bye were with Theo Johnson. Both games on a short week were with Theo Johnson.
Theo Johnson, tight end: 799 receiving yards, 67 receptions and 110 targets in 25 of those 35 games.
passing yards a game over expected
with Theo Johnson
−15.4
without Theo Johnson
+11.4
-1000100200
A −26.8 difference in passing yards over expected with Theo Johnson vs without Theo Johnson is about what you’d expect.
plain
208.6
239.9
200400
A −31.3 difference in passing yards with Theo Johnson vs without Theo Johnson is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Theo Johnsonwithout Theo Johnson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | vs PHI | L | 105 | 216.9 | |
| Oct 28, 2024 | @ PIT | L | 264 | 218.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs WAS | L | 174 | 219.0 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs CAR (neutral) | L | 190 | 224.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs TB | L | 192 | 238.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | @ DAL | L | 178 | 224.1 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs NO | L | 227 | 232.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs BAL | L | 191 | 234.3 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ ATL | L | 210 | 223.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs IND | W | 309 | 225.5 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @PHI | L | 138 | 211.6 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @WAS | L | 168 | 243.9 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @DAL | L | 450 | 236.3 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs KC | L | 160 | 216.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs LAC | W | 119 | 217.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @NO | L | 202 | 198.2 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsPHI | W | 195 | 208.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ DEN | L | 283 | 203.1 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @PHI | L | 193 | 202.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs SF | L | 191 | 226.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 287 | 227.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs GB | L | 201 | 220.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ DET | L | 399 | 213.3 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | @ NE | L | 139 | 217.2 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsWAS | L | 246 | 244.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs MIN | L | 33 | 204.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ LV | W | 207 | 210.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 230 | 260.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 230 | 242.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | @ LA | L | 131 | 224.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 118 | 275.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 250 | 221.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @WAS | T | 326 | 238.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsNO | L | 395 | 214.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 252 | 243.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.7 in 2024, plus 4.5 in 2025, plus 1.5 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 36% in 2024, 64% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.