The Giants' carries with Tyrone Tracy Jr. and without Tyrone Tracy Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Giants were 0.0 carries over with Tyrone Tracy Jr. and 7.5 carries over without Tyrone Tracy Jr. over their last 35 games, 33 games against 2. The plain averages are 27.3 and 35.5, a difference of 8.2. All 12 division games were with Tyrone Tracy Jr.. Both games after a bye were with Tyrone Tracy Jr.. Both games on a short week were with Tyrone Tracy Jr..
Tyrone Tracy Jr., running back: 1,426 rushing yards, 340 carries and 68 receptions in 33 of those 35 games, 38% of NYG’s carries in those games.
2 games without Tyrone Tracy Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −7.5 difference in carries over expected with Tyrone Tracy Jr. vs without Tyrone Tracy Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A −8.2 difference in carries with Tyrone Tracy Jr. vs without Tyrone Tracy Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | vs PHI | L | 18 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 28, 2024 | @ PIT | L | 25 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs WAS | L | 31 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs CAR (neutral) | L | 34 | 31.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs TB | L | 20 | 22.6 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | @ DAL | L | 21 | 25.9 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs NO | L | 23 | 27.1 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs BAL | L | 20 | 22.6 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ ATL | L | 13 | 27.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs IND | W | 30 | 29.5 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @PHI | L | 25 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @WAS | L | 23 | 29.7 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @DAL | L | 21 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs KC | L | 27 | 28.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs LAC | W | 42 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @NO | L | 29 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsPHI | W | 39 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ DEN | L | 32 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @PHI | L | 21 | 29.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs SF | L | 21 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 30 | 28.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs GB | L | 38 | 28.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ DET | L | 39 | 27.0 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | @ NE | L | 26 | 26.6 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsWAS | L | 29 | 29.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs MIN | L | 30 | 30.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ LV | W | 31 | 29.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 32 | 28.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 37 | 27.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | @ LA | L | 21 | 27.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 33 | 27.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 28 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @WAS | T | 28 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsNO | L | 20 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 34 | 26.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.4 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 48% in 2025, 21% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.