The Giants' carries with Jameis Winston and without Jameis Winston
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Giants were 2.0 carries over with Jameis Winston and 1.4 carries over without Jameis Winston over their last 35 games, 7 games against 17. The plain averages are 29.6 and 29.6, a difference of 0.1. Expected was 0.7 carries lower with Jameis Winston than without Jameis Winston.
Jameis Winston, quarterback: 1,524 passing yards, 224 pass attempts and 127 completions in 9 of those 35 games, 9% of NYG’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Jameis Winston
+2.0
without Jameis Winston
+1.4
010
A +0.6 difference in carries over expected with Jameis Winston vs without Jameis Winston is about what you’d expect.
plain
29.6
29.6
203040
A −0.1 difference in carries with Jameis Winston vs without Jameis Winston is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jameis Winstonwithout Jameis Winston
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | vs PHI | L | 18 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 28, 2024 | @ PIT | L | 25 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs WAS | L | 31 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs CAR (neutral) | L | 34 | 31.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs TB | L | 20 | 22.6 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | @ DAL | L | 21 | 25.9 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs NO | L | 23 | 27.1 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs BAL | L | 20 | 22.6 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ ATL | L | 13 | 27.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs IND | W | 30 | 29.5 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @PHI | L | 25 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @WAS | L | 23 | 29.7 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @DAL | L | 21 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs KC | L | 27 | 28.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs LAC | W | 42 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @NO | L | 29 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsPHI | W | 39 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ DEN | L | 32 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @PHI | L | 21 | 29.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs SF | L | 21 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 30 | 28.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs GB | L | 38 | 28.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ DET | L | 39 | 27.0 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | @ NE | L | 26 | 26.6 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsWAS | L | 29 | 29.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs MIN | L | 30 | 30.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ LV | W | 31 | 29.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 32 | 28.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 37 | 27.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | @ LA | L | 21 | 27.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 33 | 27.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 28 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @WAS | T | 28 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsNO | L | 20 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 34 | 26.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 48% in 2025, 21% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 11 games in 2024 are neither with Jameis Winston nor without Jameis Winston: Jameis Winston had no game for the team that season, and sit out.