The Giants' carries with Jameis Winston and without Jameis Winston
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Giants were 1.5 carries under with Jameis Winston and 8.8 carries over without Jameis Winston in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 26.0 and 35.5, a difference of 9.5.
Jameis Winston, quarterback: 957 passing yards, 158 pass attempts and 90 completions in 6 games this season, 10% of NYG’s carries in those games.
2 games without Jameis Winston is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −10.2 difference in carries over expected with Jameis Winston vs without Jameis Winston is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jameis Winston and it comes up 9 times in 100.
A −9.5 difference in carries with Jameis Winston vs without Jameis Winston is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jameis Winston and it comes up 9 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 37 | 27.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | @ LA | L | 21 | 27.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 33 | 27.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 28 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ WAS | T | 28 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs NO | L | 20 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 34 | 26.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.