The Falcons' rushing yards with Michael Penix Jr. and without Michael Penix Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Falcons were 14.2 yards over with Michael Penix Jr. and 17.3 yards over without Michael Penix Jr. in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 133.5 and 138.5, a difference of 5.0. All 4 second-half games were with Michael Penix Jr..
Michael Penix Jr., quarterback: 1,282 passing yards, 168 pass attempts and 104 completions in 6 games this season, 2% of ATL’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games without Michael Penix Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −3.2 difference in rushing yards over expected with Michael Penix Jr. vs without Michael Penix Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A −5.0 difference in rushing yards with Michael Penix Jr. vs without Michael Penix Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 120 | 110.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CAR | L | 157 | 131.8 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | @ GB | W | 242 | 106.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | @ NO | W | 205 | 127.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs BAL | L | 110 | 123.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 63 | 123.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs SF | W | 82 | 118.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ TB | L | 99 | 117.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 32% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.