The Falcons' points with James Pearce Jr. and since James Pearce Jr.’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Falcons were 0.7 points under with James Pearce Jr. and 1.3 points under since James Pearce Jr.’s last game over their last 35 games, 17 games against 8. The plain averages are 20.8 and 21.4, a difference of 0.6. Expected was 1.2 points lower with James Pearce Jr. than since James Pearce Jr.’s last game.
James Pearce Jr., defensive lineman: 10.5 sacks in 15 of those 35 games.
points a game over expected
with James Pearce Jr.
−0.7
since James Pearce Jr.’s last game
−1.3
-20020
A +0.6 difference in points over expected with James Pearce Jr. vs since James Pearce Jr.’s last game is about what you’d expect.
plain
20.8
21.4
02040
A −0.6 difference in points with James Pearce Jr. vs since James Pearce Jr.’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
with James Pearce Jr.since James Pearce Jr.’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ TB | W | 31 | 20.9 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs DAL | W | 27 | 25.8 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ NO | L | 17 | 23.0 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ DEN | L | 6 | 20.5 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs LAC | L | 13 | 21.5 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ MIN | L | 21 | 20.1 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | @ LV | W | 15 | 24.9 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs NYG | W | 34 | 22.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ WAS | L | 24 | 23.2 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs CAR | L | 38 | 28.6 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vsTB | L | 20 | 23.5 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @MIN | W | 22 | 17.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @CAR | L | 0 | 21.6 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vsWAS | W | 34 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs BUF | W | 24 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ SF | L | 10 | 20.3 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs MIA | L | 10 | 25.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ NE | L | 23 | 17.8 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs IND (neutral) | L | 25 | 22.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsCAR | L | 27 | 21.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @NO | W | 24 | 19.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ NYJ | L | 24 | 25.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 9 | 17.8 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @TB | W | 29 | 20.9 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ ARI | W | 26 | 22.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs LA | W | 27 | 19.5 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsNO | W | 19 | 22.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 13 | 22.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsCAR | L | 3 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | @ GB | W | 35 | 20.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | @NO | W | 45 | 22.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs BAL | L | 23 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 23 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsSF | W | 29 | 21.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @TB | L | 0 | 23.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.1 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 10 games in 2024 are neither with James Pearce Jr. nor since James Pearce Jr.’s last game: James Pearce Jr. had no game for the team that season, and sit out.