The Falcons' points of margin with Michael Penix Jr. and without Michael Penix Jr.
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Falcons were 2.4 points over with Michael Penix Jr. and 5.0 points under without Michael Penix Jr. over their last 35 games, 18 games against 17. The plain averages are 0.8 and -6.4, a difference of 7.2.
Michael Penix Jr., quarterback: 4,025 passing yards, 548 pass attempts and 330 completions in 19 of those 35 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Michael Penix Jr.
+2.4
without Michael Penix Jr.
−5.0
-20020
A +7.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Michael Penix Jr. vs without Michael Penix Jr. is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.8
-6.4
-20020
A +7.2 difference in points of margin with Michael Penix Jr. vs without Michael Penix Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Michael Penix Jr.without Michael Penix Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ TB | W | 5 | -9.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs DAL | W | 6 | 4.2 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ NO | L | -3 | 0.2 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ DEN | L | -32 | -4.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs LAC | L | -4 | -3.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ MIN | L | -21 | -5.7 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | @ LV | W | 6 | 1.6 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs NYG | W | 27 | 3.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ WAS | L | -6 | -6.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs CAR | L | -6 | 9.7 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vsTB | L | -3 | 0.7 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @MIN | W | 16 | -6.6 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @CAR | L | -30 | 1.0 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vsWAS | W | 7 | 4.1 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs BUF | W | 10 | -5.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ SF | L | -10 | -7.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs MIA | L | -24 | 7.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ NE | L | -1 | -9.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs IND (neutral) | L | -6 | -6.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsCAR | L | -3 | 2.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @NO | W | 14 | -1.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ NYJ | L | -3 | 6.7 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs SEA | L | -28 | -10.1 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @TB | W | 1 | -3.7 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ ARI | W | 7 | -1.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs LA | W | 3 | -10.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsNO | W | 2 | 3.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PIT | L | -7 | -1.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsCAR | L | -31 | 3.6 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | @ GB | W | 21 | -3.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | @NO | W | 21 | -0.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs BAL | L | -7 | 2.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CHI | L | -8 | -2.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsSF | W | 9 | -3.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @TB | L | -16 | -0.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 in 2024, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.