The Falcons' points allowed with Michael Penix Jr. and without Michael Penix Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Falcons were 0.8 points under with Michael Penix Jr. and 3.9 points over without Michael Penix Jr. in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 22.5 and 27.0, a difference of 4.5. All 4 second-half games were with Michael Penix Jr..
Michael Penix Jr., quarterback: 1,282 passing yards, 168 pass attempts and 104 completions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Michael Penix Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −4.7 difference in points allowed over expected with Michael Penix Jr. vs without Michael Penix Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A −4.5 difference in points allowed with Michael Penix Jr. vs without Michael Penix Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 20 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CAR | L | 34 | 23.1 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | @ GB | W | 14 | 23.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | @ NO | W | 24 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs BAL | L | 30 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 31 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs SF | W | 20 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ TB | L | 16 | 23.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.