The Falcons' carries with Brian Robinson and since Brian Robinson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Falcons were 2.1 carries over with Brian Robinson and 1.2 carries over since Brian Robinson’s last game over their last 35 games, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 29.5 and 28.5, a difference of 1.0.
Brian Robinson, running back: 211 rushing yards, 53 carries and 5 receptions in 6 of those 35 games, 30% of ATL’s carries in those games.
2 games since Brian Robinson’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +0.9 difference in carries over expected with Brian Robinson vs since Brian Robinson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.0 difference in carries with Brian Robinson vs since Brian Robinson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ TB | W | 29 | 25.0 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs DAL | W | 30 | 28.1 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ NO | L | 32 | 29.5 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ DEN | L | 21 | 29.4 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs LAC | L | 37 | 27.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ MIN | L | 32 | 25.3 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | @ LV | W | 37 | 28.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs NYG | W | 38 | 28.6 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ WAS | L | 23 | 29.5 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs CAR | L | 38 | 33.9 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vsTB | L | 28 | 25.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @MIN | W | 39 | 28.7 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @CAR | L | 23 | 27.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vsWAS | W | 37 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs BUF | W | 32 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ SF | L | 20 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs MIA | L | 17 | 28.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ NE | L | 16 | 26.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs IND (neutral) | L | 29 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsCAR | L | 28 | 27.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @NO | W | 29 | 28.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ NYJ | L | 32 | 29.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 31 | 26.0 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @TB | W | 21 | 25.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ ARI | W | 37 | 27.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs LA | W | 33 | 26.6 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsNO | W | 25 | 29.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 31 | 26.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsCAR | L | 32 | 27.9 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | @ GB | W | 41 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | @NO | W | 35 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs BAL | L | 26 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 12 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsSF | W | 29 | 27.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @TB | L | 28 | 27.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Brian Robinson nor since Brian Robinson’s last game: Brian Robinson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.