The Falcons' points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Falcons were 3.8 points under at home and 1.3 points over away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 19.5 and 23.3, a difference of 3.8.
The Falcons' −5.0 at home vs away over expected ranks 5th of the 7 teams with 4 games on each side this season.
points a game over expected
at home
−3.8
away
+1.3
-20020
A −5.0 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
19.5
23.3
02040
A −3.8 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 13 | 22.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CAR | L | 3 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | @ GB | W | 35 | 20.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | @ NO | W | 45 | 22.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs BAL | L | 23 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 23 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs SF | W | 29 | 21.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ TB | L | 0 | 23.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.