The Eagles' turnovers at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Eagles were 0.8 turnovers under at home and 0.4 turnovers over away over their last 35 games, 20 games against 13. The plain averages are 0.4 and 1.5, a difference of 1.2. All 4 playoff games were at home.
The Eagles' −1.2 at home vs away over expected ranks 32nd of the 32 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 35 games.
turnovers a game over expected
at home
−0.8
away
+0.4
02
A −1.2 difference in turnovers over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
0.4
1.5
024
A −1.2 difference in turnovers at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs CAR | W | 0 | 1.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs PIT | W | 2 | 1.3 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ WAS | L | 2 | 1.0 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs DAL | W | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 0 | 0.9 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs GB | W | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs LA | W | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vsWAS | W | 0 | 1.0 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | vs KC (neutral) | W | 1 | 1.0 | |
| Sep 4, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @KC | W | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsLA | W | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ TB | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs DEN | L | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @NYG | L | 2 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ MIN | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsNYG | W | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @GB | W | 1 | 1.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs DET | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @DAL | L | 2 | 1.1 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs CHI | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @ LAC | L | 5 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs LV | W | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @WAS | W | 1 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ BUF | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsWAS | L | 1 | 1.0 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vs SF | L | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsWAS | W | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @CHI | L | 3 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsLA | L | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsCAR | L | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vsDAL | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @WAS | L | 2 | 1.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.0 in 2024, plus 0.0 in 2025, plus 0.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 43% in 2024, 15% in 2025, 2% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.