The Eagles' points of margin with Jalen Hurts and since Jalen Hurts’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Eagles were 0.7 points under with Jalen Hurts and 14.3 points under since Jalen Hurts’ last game in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are -4.0 and -15.0, a difference of 11.0. All 4 first-half games were with Jalen Hurts.
Jalen Hurts, quarterback: 933 passing yards, 154 pass attempts and 89 completions in 5 games this season.
3 games since Jalen Hurts’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +13.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Jalen Hurts vs since Jalen Hurts’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jalen Hurts and it comes up 8 times in 100.
A +11.0 difference in points of margin with Jalen Hurts vs since Jalen Hurts’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jalen Hurts and it comes up 16 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 2 | -0.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 4 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @ CHI | L | -20 | -4.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LA | L | -4 | -3.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | -2 | -7.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CAR | L | -11 | -1.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs DAL | L | -17 | -0.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @WAS | L | -17 | 0.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.