The Eagles' points of margin with DeVonta Smith and without DeVonta Smith
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Eagles were 4.4 points under with DeVonta Smith and 7.2 points under without DeVonta Smith in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are -6.3 and -10.0, a difference of 3.8.
DeVonta Smith, receiver: 310 receiving yards, 26 receptions and 41 targets in 4 games this season.
points of margin a game over expected
with DeVonta Smith
−4.4
without DeVonta Smith
−7.2
-100
A +2.8 difference in points of margin over expected with DeVonta Smith vs without DeVonta Smith is about what you’d expect.
plain
-6.3
-10.0
-20-100
A +3.8 difference in points of margin with DeVonta Smith vs without DeVonta Smith is about what you’d expect.
The games
with DeVonta Smithwithout DeVonta Smith
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 2 | -0.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 4 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @ CHI | L | -20 | -4.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LA | L | -4 | -3.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | -2 | -7.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CAR | L | -11 | -1.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs DAL | L | -17 | -0.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @WAS | L | -17 | 0.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.