The Eagles' points of margin with Dallas Goedert and without Dallas Goedert
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Eagles were 1.2 points over with Dallas Goedert and 2.6 points under without Dallas Goedert over their last 35 games, 27 games against 8. The plain averages are 3.3 and 2.9, a difference of 0.4. Expected was 3.4 points lower with Dallas Goedert than without Dallas Goedert. Both neutral-site games were with Dallas Goedert. All 5 playoff games were with Dallas Goedert.
Dallas Goedert, tight end: 1,152 receiving yards, 111 receptions and 150 targets in 27 of those 35 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A +3.8 difference in points of margin over expected with Dallas Goedert vs without Dallas Goedert is about what you’d expect.
A +0.4 difference in points of margin with Dallas Goedert vs without Dallas Goedert is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs CAR | W | 6 | 19.5 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs PIT | W | 14 | 7.6 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ WAS | L | -3 | 3.6 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs DAL | W | 34 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 7 | 16.6 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs GB | W | 12 | 2.8 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs LA | W | 6 | 8.7 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vsWAS | W | 32 | 4.1 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | vs KC (neutral) | W | 18 | 4.0 | |
| Sep 4, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 4 | 7.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @KC | W | 3 | -1.6 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsLA | W | 7 | -6.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ TB | W | 6 | 0.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs DEN | L | -4 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @NYG | L | -17 | 4.9 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ MIN | W | 6 | -0.9 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsNYG | W | 18 | 5.6 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @GB | W | 3 | -0.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs DET | W | 7 | 0.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @DAL | L | -3 | 4.0 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs CHI | L | -9 | 4.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @ LAC | L | -3 | 0.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs LV | W | 31 | 10.2 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @WAS | W | 11 | 4.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ BUF | W | 1 | -4.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsWAS | L | -7 | 9.8 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vs SF | L | -4 | 0.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsWAS | W | 2 | -0.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 4 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @CHI | L | -20 | -4.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsLA | L | -4 | -3.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | -2 | -7.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsCAR | L | -11 | -1.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vsDAL | L | -17 | -0.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @WAS | L | -17 | 0.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 in 2024, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.