The Eagles' points allowed with Dallas Goedert and without Dallas Goedert
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Eagles were 1.7 points over with Dallas Goedert and 1.5 points over without Dallas Goedert in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 25.2 and 25.5, a difference of 0.3. Expected was 0.6 points lower with Dallas Goedert than without Dallas Goedert. All 3 division games were with Dallas Goedert. All 4 second-half games were with Dallas Goedert.
Dallas Goedert, tight end: 258 receiving yards, 26 receptions and 35 targets in 6 games this season.
2 games without Dallas Goedert is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A +0.3 difference in points allowed over expected with Dallas Goedert vs without Dallas Goedert is about what you’d expect.
A −0.3 difference in points allowed with Dallas Goedert vs without Dallas Goedert is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 22 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 20 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 27 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LA | L | 24 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | 19 | 25.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CAR | L | 25 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 38 | 23.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @WAS | L | 27 | 22.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.