The Eagles' passing yards with DeVonta Smith and without DeVonta Smith
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Eagles were 15.7 yards under with DeVonta Smith and 18.2 yards under without DeVonta Smith over their last 35 games, 30 games against 5. The plain averages are 199.2 and 201.0, a difference of 1.8. Expected was 4.2 yards lower with DeVonta Smith than without DeVonta Smith. All 5 playoff games were with DeVonta Smith.
DeVonta Smith, receiver: 1,895 receiving yards, 154 receptions and 215 targets in 30 of those 35 games.
passing yards a game over expected
with DeVonta Smith
−15.7
without DeVonta Smith
−18.2
-1000100
A +2.4 difference in passing yards over expected with DeVonta Smith vs without DeVonta Smith is about what you’d expect.
plain
199.2
201.0
100200300
A −1.8 difference in passing yards with DeVonta Smith vs without DeVonta Smith is about what you’d expect.
The games
with DeVonta Smithwithout DeVonta Smith
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs CAR | W | 108 | 227.8 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs PIT | W | 290 | 219.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ WAS | L | 154 | 213.6 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs DAL | W | 197 | 224.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 269 | 216.8 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs GB | W | 131 | 221.3 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs LA | W | 128 | 224.0 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vsWAS | W | 246 | 214.1 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | vs KC (neutral) | W | 221 | 220.2 | |
| Sep 4, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 152 | 252.8 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @KC | W | 101 | 200.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsLA | W | 226 | 217.6 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ TB | W | 130 | 231.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs DEN | L | 280 | 196.0 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @NYG | L | 283 | 199.0 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ MIN | W | 326 | 159.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsNYG | W | 179 | 213.5 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @GB | W | 183 | 201.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs DET | W | 135 | 228.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @DAL | L | 289 | 235.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs CHI | L | 230 | 224.5 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @ LAC | L | 240 | 187.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs LV | W | 208 | 202.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @WAS | W | 185 | 228.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ BUF | W | 110 | 187.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsWAS | L | 241 | 230.7 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vs SF | L | 168 | 214.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsWAS | W | 203 | 230.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 264 | 226.5 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @CHI | L | 153 | 214.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsLA | L | 93 | 204.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | 220 | 227.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsCAR | L | 215 | 201.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vsDAL | L | 211 | 219.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @WAS | L | 212 | 228.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.7 in 2024, plus 4.5 in 2025, plus 1.5 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 36% in 2024, 64% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.