The Eagles' passing yards with DeVonta Smith and without DeVonta Smith
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Eagles were 9.5 yards under with DeVonta Smith and 35.8 yards under without DeVonta Smith in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 208.8 and 184.0, a difference of 24.8.
DeVonta Smith, receiver: 310 receiving yards, 26 receptions and 41 targets in 4 games this season.
passing yards a game over expected
with DeVonta Smith
−9.5
without DeVonta Smith
−35.8
-100-500
A +26.3 difference in passing yards over expected with DeVonta Smith vs without DeVonta Smith is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with DeVonta Smith and it comes up 13 times in 100.
plain
208.8
184.0
100150200250
A +24.8 difference in passing yards with DeVonta Smith vs without DeVonta Smith is about what you’d expect.
The games
with DeVonta Smithwithout DeVonta Smith
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 203 | 230.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 264 | 226.5 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 153 | 214.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LA | L | 93 | 204.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | 220 | 227.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CAR | L | 215 | 201.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 211 | 219.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @WAS | L | 212 | 228.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.