The Eagles' carries with Jalen Hurts and without Jalen Hurts
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Eagles were 1.2 carries over with Jalen Hurts and 3.0 carries under without Jalen Hurts over their last 35 games, 28 games against 7. The plain averages are 29.9 and 27.4, a difference of 2.5. Both neutral-site games were with Jalen Hurts. All 5 playoff games were with Jalen Hurts.
Jalen Hurts, quarterback: 5,460 passing yards, 791 pass attempts and 508 completions in 29 of those 35 games, 22% of PHI’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Jalen Hurts
+1.2
without Jalen Hurts
−3.0
-10010
A +4.2 difference in carries over expected with Jalen Hurts vs without Jalen Hurts is about what you’d expect.
plain
29.9
27.4
203040
A +2.5 difference in carries with Jalen Hurts vs without Jalen Hurts is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jalen Hurtswithout Jalen Hurts
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs CAR | W | 31 | 40.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs PIT | W | 42 | 31.9 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ WAS | L | 39 | 34.0 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs DAL | W | 42 | 33.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 25 | 35.6 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs GB | W | 34 | 32.5 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs LA | W | 34 | 34.9 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vsWAS | W | 36 | 34.2 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | vs KC (neutral) | W | 45 | 32.5 | |
| Sep 4, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 38 | 27.1 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @KC | W | 34 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsLA | W | 27 | 27.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ TB | W | 31 | 24.7 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs DEN | L | 11 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @NYG | L | 20 | 28.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ MIN | W | 23 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsNYG | W | 33 | 27.8 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @GB | W | 34 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs DET | W | 40 | 26.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @DAL | L | 18 | 27.8 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs CHI | L | 17 | 28.9 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @ LAC | L | 25 | 26.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs LV | W | 47 | 28.3 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @WAS | W | 34 | 28.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ BUF | W | 26 | 27.1 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsWAS | L | 19 | 29.8 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vs SF | L | 36 | 26.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsWAS | W | 25 | 26.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 32 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @CHI | L | 19 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsLA | L | 27 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | 18 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsCAR | L | 13 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vsDAL | L | 25 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @WAS | L | 29 | 25.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.4 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 48% in 2025, 21% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.