The Dolphins' points of margin with Jaylen Wright and without Jaylen Wright
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Dolphins were 5.6 points under with Jaylen Wright and 12.5 points under without Jaylen Wright in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -8.3 and -14.0, a difference of 5.7. All 4 away games were with Jaylen Wright. Both division games were with Jaylen Wright. All 4 second-half games were with Jaylen Wright.
Jaylen Wright, running back: 41 rushing yards, 22 carries and 2 targets in 6 games this season.
One game without Jaylen Wright is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jaylen Wright
−5.6
without Jaylen Wright
−12.5
-100
plain
-8.3
-14.0
-20-100
The games
with Jaylen Wrightwithout Jaylen Wright
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ LV | L | -14 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ SF | L | -22 | -2.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs KC | L | -14 | -1.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ MIN | L | -5 | -4.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs CIN | L | -7 | -4.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ NYJ | W | 3 | -1.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs NE | L | -5 | -3.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.