The Dolphins' points of margin with De'Von Achane and without De'Von Achane
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Dolphins were 0.5 points over with De'Von Achane and 3.6 points under without De'Von Achane over their last 35 games, 30 games against 5. The plain averages are -2.0 and -8.4, a difference of 6.4. All 3 games on a short week were with De'Von Achane.
De'Von Achane, running back: 2,124 rushing yards, 404 carries and 129 receptions in 30 of those 35 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with De'Von Achane
+0.5
without De'Von Achane
−3.6
-20020
A +4.1 difference in points of margin over expected with De'Von Achane vs without De'Von Achane is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with De'Von Achane and it comes up 15 times in 100.
plain
-2.0
-8.4
-20020
A +6.4 difference in points of margin with De'Von Achane vs without De'Von Achane is about what you’d expect.
The games
with De'Von Achanewithout De'Von Achane
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | vs ARI | L | -1 | -2.6 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ BUF | L | -3 | -11.5 | |
| Nov 11, 2024 | @ LA | W | 8 | -6.2 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs LV | W | 15 | 3.4 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs NE | W | 19 | 4.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | @ GB | L | -13 | -9.4 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs NYJ | W | 6 | 2.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ HOU | L | -8 | -3.5 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs SF | W | 12 | -1.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ CLE | W | 17 | 2.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @NYJ | L | -12 | 0.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ IND | L | -25 | -8.9 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsNE | L | -6 | -8.1 | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | @BUF | L | -10 | -10.6 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | vsNYJ | W | 6 | 6.8 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ CAR | L | -3 | -4.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs LAC | L | -2 | -3.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @CLE | L | -25 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 24 | -7.5 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | vs BAL | L | -22 | -1.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsBUF | W | 17 | -9.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs WAS (neutral) | W | 3 | -0.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs NO | W | 4 | 0.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @NYJ | W | 24 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | @ PIT | L | -13 | -5.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs CIN | L | -24 | 3.8 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs TB | W | 3 | -2.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @NE | L | -28 | -10.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @LV | L | -14 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @SF | L | -22 | -2.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs KC | L | -14 | -1.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ MIN | L | -5 | -4.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsCIN | L | -7 | -4.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @NYJ | W | 3 | -1.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsNE | L | -5 | -3.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 in 2024, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.