The Dolphins' carries with Jaylen Wright and without Jaylen Wright
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Dolphins were 0.0 carries over with Jaylen Wright and 4.3 carries under without Jaylen Wright over their last 35 games, 26 games against 9. The plain averages are 26.4 and 22.1, a difference of 4.3. Both games after a bye were with Jaylen Wright.
Jaylen Wright, running back: 406 rushing yards, 126 carries and 8 receptions in 23 of those 35 games, 20% of MIA’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Jaylen Wright
+0.0
without Jaylen Wright
−4.3
-10010
A +4.3 difference in carries over expected with Jaylen Wright vs without Jaylen Wright is about what you’d expect.
plain
26.4
22.1
203040
A +4.3 difference in carries with Jaylen Wright vs without Jaylen Wright is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jaylen Wrightwithout Jaylen Wright
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | vs ARI | L | 25 | 26.1 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ BUF | L | 31 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 11, 2024 | @ LA | W | 22 | 26.5 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs LV | W | 26 | 25.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs NE | W | 24 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | @ GB | L | 14 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs NYJ | W | 19 | 28.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ HOU | L | 19 | 24.9 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs SF | W | 30 | 26.3 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ CLE | W | 27 | 26.1 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @NYJ | L | 23 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ IND | L | 12 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsNE | L | 15 | 25.4 | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | @BUF | L | 25 | 25.4 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | vsNYJ | W | 31 | 28.4 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ CAR | L | 14 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs LAC | L | 21 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @CLE | L | 22 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 37 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | vs BAL | L | 20 | 26.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsBUF | W | 32 | 25.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs WAS (neutral) | W | 31 | 27.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs NO | W | 32 | 27.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @NYJ | W | 41 | 27.3 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | @ PIT | L | 16 | 26.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs CIN | L | 28 | 27.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs TB | W | 30 | 23.5 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @NE | L | 25 | 24.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @LV | L | 18 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @SF | L | 28 | 26.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs KC | L | 31 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 18 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsCIN | L | 34 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @NYJ | W | 41 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsNE | L | 23 | 26.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.4 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 48% in 2025, 21% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.