The Commanders' rushing yards with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Commanders were 21.0 yards over with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and 19.4 yards under since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 139.6 and 94.0, a difference of 45.6. All 3 first-half games were with Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, running back: 239 rushing yards, 67 carries and 5 receptions in 5 games this season, 34% of WAS’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +40.3 difference in rushing yards over expected with Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +45.6 difference in rushing yards with Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 132 | 118.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 182 | 127.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 82 | 105.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs IND (neutral) | L | 100 | 125.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs NYG | T | 202 | 116.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | 53 | 107.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 135 | 119.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 32% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.