The Commanders' points with Terry McLaurin and without Terry McLaurin
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Commanders were 0.9 points over with Terry McLaurin and 1.5 points under without Terry McLaurin over their last 35 games, 26 games against 9. The plain averages are 24.6 and 21.0, a difference of 3.6. Both neutral-site games were without Terry McLaurin. Both games on a short week were with Terry McLaurin. All 3 playoff games were with Terry McLaurin.
Terry McLaurin, receiver: 1,537 receiving yards, 107 receptions and 167 targets in 26 of those 35 games.
points a game over expected
with Terry McLaurin
+0.9
without Terry McLaurin
−1.5
020
A +2.3 difference in points over expected with Terry McLaurin vs without Terry McLaurin is about what you’d expect.
plain
24.6
21.0
02040
A +3.6 difference in points with Terry McLaurin vs without Terry McLaurin is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Terry McLaurinwithout Terry McLaurin
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs PIT | L | 27 | 25.6 | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | @ PHI | L | 18 | 23.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs DAL | L | 26 | 30.5 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs TEN | W | 42 | 29.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ NO | W | 20 | 27.4 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vsPHI | W | 36 | 23.5 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 30 | 29.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @DAL | W | 23 | 29.4 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ TB | W | 23 | 26.2 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ DET | W | 45 | 23.5 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @PHI | L | 23 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 21 | 24.9 | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | @ GB | L | 18 | 19.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs LV | W | 41 | 22.6 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ATL | L | 27 | 20.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ LAC | W | 27 | 18.2 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs CHI | L | 24 | 23.4 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @DAL | L | 22 | 27.3 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | @ KC | L | 7 | 19.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 14 | 17.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsDET | L | 22 | 23.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs MIA (neutral) | L | 13 | 24.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs DEN | L | 26 | 19.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ MIN | L | 0 | 19.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @NYG | W | 29 | 22.4 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsPHI | L | 18 | 19.2 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | vsDAL | L | 23 | 29.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @PHI | W | 24 | 17.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @PHI | L | 22 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @DAL | L | 20 | 24.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsSEA | W | 33 | 20.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs IND (neutral) | L | 13 | 25.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsNYG | T | 27 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | 17 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 27 | 22.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.9 in 2024, plus 1.1 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.