The Commanders' points of margin with Terry McLaurin and without Terry McLaurin
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Commanders were 3.0 points under with Terry McLaurin and 0.8 points under without Terry McLaurin in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are -4.6 and 0.0, a difference of 4.6. All 3 away games were with Terry McLaurin. All 3 first-half games were with Terry McLaurin.
Terry McLaurin, receiver: 230 receiving yards, 15 receptions and 27 targets in 5 games this season.
2 games without Terry McLaurin is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −2.1 difference in points of margin over expected with Terry McLaurin vs without Terry McLaurin is about what you’d expect.
A −4.6 difference in points of margin with Terry McLaurin vs without Terry McLaurin is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PHI | L | -2 | 0.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ DAL | L | -17 | -0.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 2 | -3.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs IND (neutral) | L | -17 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs NYG | T | 0 | -0.8 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | -6 | -4.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 17 | -0.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.