The Commanders' points of margin with Jayden Daniels and without Jayden Daniels
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Commanders were 0.6 points under with Jayden Daniels and 2.9 points under without Jayden Daniels over their last 35 games, 21 games against 14. The plain averages are -2.1 and -4.9, a difference of 2.7. Both neutral-site games were without Jayden Daniels. Both games on a short week were with Jayden Daniels. All 3 playoff games were with Jayden Daniels.
Jayden Daniels, quarterback: 4,683 passing yards, 699 pass attempts and 448 completions in 23 of those 35 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A +2.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Jayden Daniels vs without Jayden Daniels is about what you’d expect.
A +2.7 difference in points of margin with Jayden Daniels vs without Jayden Daniels is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs PIT | L | -1 | 3.9 | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | @ PHI | L | -8 | -5.9 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs DAL | L | -8 | 11.3 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs TEN | W | 23 | 10.5 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ NO | W | 1 | 5.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vsPHI | W | 3 | -3.6 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 6 | 6.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @DAL | W | 4 | 7.0 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ TB | W | 3 | -3.2 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ DET | W | 14 | -9.9 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @PHI | L | -32 | -4.1 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 15 | -1.3 | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | @ GB | L | -9 | -6.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs LV | W | 17 | 4.4 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ATL | L | -7 | -4.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ LAC | W | 17 | -9.3 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs CHI | L | -1 | -3.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @DAL | L | -22 | -1.3 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | @ KC | L | -21 | -6.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs SEA | L | -24 | -13.2 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsDET | L | -22 | -4.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs MIA (neutral) | L | -3 | 0.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs DEN | L | -1 | -5.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ MIN | L | -31 | -4.3 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @NYG | W | 8 | -4.6 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsPHI | L | -11 | -4.2 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | vsDAL | L | -7 | 1.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @PHI | W | 7 | -9.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @PHI | L | -2 | 0.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @DAL | L | -17 | -0.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsSEA | W | 2 | -3.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs IND (neutral) | L | -17 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsNYG | T | 0 | -0.8 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | -6 | -4.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 17 | -0.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 in 2024, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.