The Commanders' points allowed with Marcus Mariota and without Marcus Mariota
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Commanders were 3.4 points over with Marcus Mariota and 1.4 points over without Marcus Mariota over their last 35 games, 10 games against 25. The plain averages are 27.3 and 26.7, a difference of 0.6. Expected was 1.4 points lower with Marcus Mariota than without Marcus Mariota. Both games on a short week were without Marcus Mariota. All 3 playoff games were without Marcus Mariota.
Marcus Mariota, quarterback: 2,196 passing yards, 296 pass attempts and 187 completions in 16 of those 35 games.
points allowed a game over expected
A +2.0 difference in points allowed over expected with Marcus Mariota vs without Marcus Mariota is about what you’d expect.
A +0.6 difference in points allowed with Marcus Mariota vs without Marcus Mariota is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs PIT | L | 28 | 22.2 | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | @ PHI | L | 26 | 28.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs DAL | L | 34 | 20.6 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs TEN | W | 19 | 20.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ NO | W | 19 | 22.4 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vsPHI | W | 33 | 26.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 24 | 23.2 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @DAL | W | 19 | 23.2 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ TB | W | 20 | 29.0 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ DET | W | 31 | 32.2 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @PHI | L | 55 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 6 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | @ GB | L | 27 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs LV | W | 24 | 18.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ATL | L | 34 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ LAC | W | 10 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs CHI | L | 25 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @DAL | L | 44 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | @ KC | L | 28 | 24.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 38 | 29.2 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsDET | L | 44 | 27.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs MIA (neutral) | L | 16 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs DEN | L | 27 | 24.3 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ MIN | L | 31 | 23.3 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @NYG | W | 21 | 26.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsPHI | L | 29 | 23.0 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | vsDAL | L | 30 | 27.9 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @PHI | W | 17 | 25.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @PHI | L | 24 | 22.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @DAL | L | 37 | 24.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsSEA | W | 31 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs IND (neutral) | L | 30 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsNYG | T | 27 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | 23 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 10 | 22.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.