The Commanders' points allowed with Jayden Daniels and without Jayden Daniels
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Commanders were 2.5 points under with Jayden Daniels and 8.7 points over without Jayden Daniels in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 21.0 and 32.7, a difference of 11.7.
Jayden Daniels, quarterback: 976 passing yards, 145 pass attempts and 91 completions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Jayden Daniels is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −11.2 difference in points allowed over expected with Jayden Daniels vs without Jayden Daniels is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jayden Daniels and it comes up 6 times in 100.
A −11.7 difference in points allowed with Jayden Daniels vs without Jayden Daniels is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jayden Daniels and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 24 | 22.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 37 | 24.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 31 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs IND (neutral) | L | 30 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs NYG | T | 27 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | 23 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 10 | 22.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.