The Commanders' passing yards with Stefon Diggs and without Stefon Diggs
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Commanders were 11.3 yards under with Stefon Diggs and 11.3 yards under without Stefon Diggs in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 217.2 and 199.0, a difference of 18.2. All 3 away games were with Stefon Diggs. All 3 games outside the division were with Stefon Diggs. All 3 first-half games were with Stefon Diggs.
Stefon Diggs, receiver: 252 receiving yards, 27 receptions and 44 targets in 6 games this season.
One game without Stefon Diggs is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
with Stefon Diggs
−11.3
without Stefon Diggs
−11.3
-50050
plain
217.2
199.0
200250300
The games
with Stefon Diggswithout Stefon Diggs
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 164 | 238.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 207 | 248.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 183 | 197.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs IND (neutral) | L | 232 | 233.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs NYG | T | 199 | 210.3 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | 300 | 218.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 217 | 233.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.