The Commanders' carries with Stefon Diggs and without Stefon Diggs
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Commanders were 0.1 carries under with Stefon Diggs and 3.2 carries over without Stefon Diggs over their last 35 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 26.8 and 30.0, a difference of 3.2. All 3 away games were with Stefon Diggs. All 3 games outside the division were with Stefon Diggs.
Stefon Diggs, receiver: 252 receiving yards, 27 receptions and 44 targets in 6 of those 35 games.
One game without Stefon Diggs is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Stefon Diggs
−0.1
without Stefon Diggs
+3.2
-505
plain
26.8
30.0
202530
The games
with Stefon Diggswithout Stefon Diggs
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs PIT | L | 22 | 30.0 | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | @ PHI | L | 28 | 27.8 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs DAL | L | 25 | 30.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs TEN | W | 45 | 31.8 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ NO | W | 35 | 31.5 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vsPHI | W | 24 | 28.0 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 36 | 30.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @DAL | W | 18 | 31.4 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ TB | W | 33 | 26.9 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ DET | W | 42 | 26.4 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @PHI | L | 25 | 28.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 32 | 27.7 | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | @ GB | L | 19 | 28.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs LV | W | 32 | 29.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ATL | L | 22 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ LAC | W | 28 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs CHI | L | 31 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @DAL | L | 28 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | @ KC | L | 20 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 36 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsDET | L | 27 | 27.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs MIA (neutral) | L | 33 | 27.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs DEN | L | 33 | 26.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ MIN | L | 23 | 29.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @NYG | W | 37 | 27.0 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsPHI | L | 26 | 28.7 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | vsDAL | L | 16 | 28.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @PHI | W | 41 | 27.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @PHI | L | 32 | 27.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @DAL | L | 32 | 27.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsSEA | W | 32 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs IND (neutral) | L | 22 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsNYG | T | 30 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | 17 | 26.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 26 | 27.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 28 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Stefon Diggs nor without Stefon Diggs: Stefon Diggs had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.