The Commanders' carries with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Commanders were 1.3 carries over with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and 5.7 carries under since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game over their last 35 games, 22 games against 2. The plain averages are 28.7 and 21.5, a difference of 7.2. Both neutral-site games were with Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, running back: 1,044 rushing yards, 242 carries and 14 receptions in 22 of those 35 games, 38% of WAS’s carries in those games.
2 games since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +7.0 difference in carries over expected with Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and it comes up 18 times in 100.
A +7.2 difference in carries with Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and it comes up 13 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs PIT | L | 22 | 30.0 | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | @ PHI | L | 28 | 27.8 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs DAL | L | 25 | 30.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs TEN | W | 45 | 31.8 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ NO | W | 35 | 31.5 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vsPHI | W | 24 | 28.0 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 36 | 30.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @DAL | W | 18 | 31.4 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ TB | W | 33 | 26.9 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ DET | W | 42 | 26.4 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @PHI | L | 25 | 28.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 32 | 27.7 | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | @ GB | L | 19 | 28.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs LV | W | 32 | 29.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ATL | L | 22 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ LAC | W | 28 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs CHI | L | 31 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @DAL | L | 28 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | @ KC | L | 20 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 36 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsDET | L | 27 | 27.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs MIA (neutral) | L | 33 | 27.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs DEN | L | 33 | 26.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ MIN | L | 23 | 29.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @NYG | W | 37 | 27.0 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsPHI | L | 26 | 28.7 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | vsDAL | L | 16 | 28.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @PHI | W | 41 | 27.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @PHI | L | 32 | 27.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @DAL | L | 32 | 27.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsSEA | W | 32 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs IND (neutral) | L | 22 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsNYG | T | 30 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | 17 | 26.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 26 | 27.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 48% in 2025, 21% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 11 games in 2024 are neither with Jacory Croskey-Merritt nor since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game: Jacory Croskey-Merritt had no game for the team that season, and sit out.