The Commanders' carries with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Commanders were 2.8 carries over with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and 5.7 carries under since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 29.6 and 21.5, a difference of 8.1. All 3 first-half games were with Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, running back: 239 rushing yards, 67 carries and 5 receptions in 5 games this season, 45% of WAS’s carries in those games.
2 games since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +8.5 difference in carries over expected with Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A +8.1 difference in carries with Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs since Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and it comes up 10 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 32 | 27.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 32 | 27.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 32 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs IND (neutral) | L | 22 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs NYG | T | 30 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ SF | L | 17 | 26.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 26 | 27.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.